800,000 disabled people to lose out on PIP by 2030 under benefit cuts legislation

About 800,000 disabled people face losing out on personal independence payment (PIP) by 2030 under legislation to cut benefits published by the government yesterday.

The Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill also includes measures to freeze incapacity benefits - chiefly the health element of universal credit - at £423.27 per month from 2026-27 for existing claimants and halve their value (to £217.26) for new recipients, which will affect almost 3 million people by the end of the decade.

The proposals are largely unchanged from those put forward by the Department for Work and Pensions in a green paper published in March save for two concessions.

Concessions fail to quell opposition

Firstly, new UC claimants will be able to receive the higher rate of the health element (£423.27) and avoid reassessments if they are deemed to have severe conditions meaning they will never be able to work, a similar arrangement that will be provided to people nearing the end of life.

Secondly, existing PIP recipients who are deemed to be ineligible due to the new rules for claiming the daily living component of PIP will have a 13-week grace period before having their payments withdrawn.

However, these were not sufficient to quell largescale opposition from charities - as well as several MPs - who warned that the legislation would worsen already high levels of poverty among disabled people and their families.

While the UC measures - coupled with a rise, from £275m in 2024-25 to £1bn in 2029-30, in spending on employment support for disabled people - are designed to incentivise more people into work, the PIP reform's purpose is to slow the growth in spending on the benefit.

According to the DWP, there were 3 million working-age people claiming PIP in 2024-25 at a cost of £21.8bn, a figure that was projected to rise to £34.1bn, for 4.2 million claimants, by 2029-30 without reform.

Should the reforms, due to come into force in November 2026, be enacted, they would reduce the cost by £3.5bn by 2029-30.

800,000 to lose out on benefit

Of existing claimants, 430,000 people undergoing a review between November 2026 and March 2030 will lose entitlement due to the reforms, 40,000 of whom would have stopped claiming in any case, according to watchdog the Office for Budget Responsibility.

In addition, 430,000 potential new claimants who would be eligible under the current rules would not be under the new rules, said the DWP. The department has estimated that the roughly 800,000 people affected by the PIP reform will lose £4,500 a year on average.

In its impact assessment on the bill, the DWP said the groups most likely to lose out as a result of the changes were those whose primary conditions were back pain, arthritis or chronic pain, while those with autism or learning difficulties were most likely to avoid losing entitlement.

As well as those losing out on PIP, 150,000 fewer carers are expected to be receiving carer's allowance or the carer element of universal credit than would otherwise be the case by 2029-30, due to eligibility being dependent on the person they cared for receiving PIP.

'Welfare system may not be there for those in need without reform'

Defending the reforms, work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall said they were necessary to safeguard the welfare system.

"Our social security system is at a crossroads," she said. "Unless we reform it, more people will be denied opportunities, and it may not be there for those who need it.

"This legislation represents a new social contract and marks the moment we take the road of compassion, opportunity and dignity. This will give people peace of mind, while also fixing our broken social security system so it supports those who can work to do so while protecting those who cannot."

Charities warn of deepening poverty

However, charities warned of deepening poverty among disabled people and carers as a result of the changes.

Disability Rights UK said it was "shocked and appalled at the government’s intended cuts to the benefits that disabled people rely upon", which would "drive millions into even deeper poverty".

The reforms set out in the green paper would result in 440,000 people in disabled households being forced into "severe hardship" - defined as having resources 25% below a poverty line defined by the Social Metrics Commission - according to an analysis for charity the Trussell Trust by WPI Economics. This was chiefly driven by the changes to PIP.

Carers 'need incomes protected not remoted'

For Carers UK, chief executive Helen Walker said: "Our analysis shows that families who lose eligibility to both PIP and carer’s allowance will stand to lose over £8,000 a year, pushing more people into poverty.

"Carers UK research shows that the poverty rate is already more than double for those providing more than 35 hours of care per week (43%) compared to those without caring responsibilities (18%).

“At a time when social care is in short supply and families are having to provide more unpaid care than ever before, carers need their incomes protected rather than removed...We are very concerned about the health and wellbeing impacts for unpaid carers."

Concerns over people with visual impairment or learning disabilities

A spokesperson for RNIB said it strongly opposed the changes to PIP, adding: "PIP provides vital support for the extra costs that come with being blind or partially sighted. We know that thousands of blind and partially sighted people who require PIP to live independent lives score just two points in individual daily living activities [meaning they would be found ineligible]."

Though the DWP's assessment was that people with learning difficulties were among the least likely to lose entitlement to PIP, Mencap raised significant concerns about the impact on people with learning disabilities should they have their benefit removed.

“Mencap’s recent survey of people with a learning disability found an alarming 70% would need to cut down on food if they lose PIP, while over half (60%) said they would need to cut back on heating and nearly half (45%) were worried they would be unable to leave their home," said the charity's executive director of strategy and influence, Jackie O'Sullivan.

“The government needs to go back to the drawing board to work with disabled people on fixing the issues with the social security system in a way that does not leave anyone worse off.”

MPs are due to have their first vote on the bill in early July.